The Economy: Latest News
6 February 2010 By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com. Since its inception, Eurozone members have been aware of a potential conflict between monetary policy - set by the European Central Bank for the entire Euro-area - and fiscal policy - government spending managed by each country. This conflict remained merely potential, however, until the eruption of the global financial crisis in Black September 2008. As a result, a structural division has arisen between "rich" northern countries - Germany/France/Netherlands - & their poorer neighbors to the south, the so-called PIGS: Portugal/Italy/Greece/Spain, presenting the Eurozone with its most serious crisis to date. 2 February 2009. By Keith Timimi, EconomyWatch.com. Key trends at Davos, indicative of some of the key themes of the year ahead, include the growing clout of the Indian delegation, rising tensions between the US and China, and the backfiring efforts of 'tone-deaf' bankers that seem to be helping the rest of the world to agree on the need to regulate them.
31 January 2010. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com. It was big news when it was announced the US economy supposedly grew at a robust 5.7% during the fourth quarter of 2009. But there are real reasons - both immediate and structural - to be wary of this alleged good news. Broadly speaking, there are at least SEVEN reasons to hold off on breaking out the Champagne to celebrate the "end" of the recession.
28 January 2010. Juan Abdel Nasser, EconomyWatch.com. The sucker's rally in equity markets has come to an end, as I predicted last year, and there will be a major crash in 2010. In fact, it looks like the March 2009 lows are in danger, and a 40% - 50% wipe out could be on the cards.
25 January 2010. David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com. On January 21, the US Supreme Court overturned the most recent attempt to put some kind of limits on political campaign finance activities with a far-ranging decision that insures the already broken and corrupt American political system will become even more so almost immediately, barring the unlikely passage of new laws by the current Congress. While this decision has already attracted commentary, relatively little has been written about the ruling's disastrous likely effects on the US and world economies.
19 January 2010. By David Caploe Phd, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com. This third article on the inter-connection of today’s 24-hour / 7 days a week global media and marketplaces will look at some of the OTHER little bits of 'bad' or scandalous news that were also 'hidden in plain sight' in the New York Times during this period – while extending it to the Friday of the first week AFTER the holidays, a day when all most people can look forward to is the end of what is usually a difficult re-entry into the work-week.
15 January 2009. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com. In this second in a three-part series on the economedia, we lay the ways companies manipulate media by timing release of bad news they want to say 'well, we DID tell you,' while hoping that no one sees it. We look at how the New York Times 'buried' - by publishing on Xmas Eve - a crucial expose of how TBTF banks like Goldman Sachs sold debt packages they knew were bad while simultaneously 'selling short' against those same packages - a perfect example of the 'double game' media organizations play with companies they are allegedly watching over 'in the public interest.'
11 January 2010. David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com. While some have intuited it, relatively few have commented upon the significance of the increasing interpenetration of the world of finance / economics / trading with the larger global media society - what we call the economedia. This first article in a series of three outlines the sources of this inter-connection of the worlds of economics and media, paying attention both to macro conditions and the role of 24-hour trading markets and how they relate to rising emerging markets.
6 January 2010. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com. The obvious temptation at this time of year is to a) look backwards - especially given the 'end' of a decade [depending on how you count it], and b) go with the 'Top Ten' theme - especially given that the New Year is 20-'10.' But we're going to keep it simple and look forward with only one resolution: to redically decrease the levels of income inequality in practically every country in the world.
27 December 2009. David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com. While it lacked the dramatics of a 2008 that featured a Black September that will go down in history as one of the most chaotic and fear-inspiring episodes in modern financial & economic history, 2009 has been pretty rough in most places.In that context, here are our Top Five Christmas wishes for the world political economy as it concludes a roller-coaster of what Queen Elizabeth, in a different context, called, an “annus horribilus”.
22 December 2009. David Caploe, PhD, Chief Politcal Economist, EconomyWatch.com. The Copenhagen environmental talks ended in a weak, informal “agreement” that some called the end of the UN-based world ecological process that began in the early 1990s with the Rio de Janeiro meetings. There were, however, some significant events – which bodes even worse for our global future. Take the extraordinary blow-up between the US and China at the climactic moment of negotiations, involving both Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and President Barack Obama personally.
19 December 2009. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com. While it wouldn’t take much to have a more activist response than the downright laissez-faire – and, consequently, increasingly irrelevant – approach of the Obama administration to the steadily deteriorating economic / financial situation, the UK government of Gordon Brown and Chancellor of the Exchequer [Treasury Secretary] Alistair Darling – are at least doing something, albeit not too much either.
17 December 2009. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist During the decade after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, China was generally seen throughout East Asia as a friendly alternative power-center to the American-led Washington-consensus. But in the last couple of years, some of China's neighbours are beginning to wonder if 'friendly uncle' is more of a 'roaring dragon', one which ironically its own people might have the most to fear from.
15 December 2009. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com.
In a global economic scene dominated by continuing uncertainty, one of the few “sure bets” has SEEMED to be the “green tech / clean tech” – whatever you want to call it – sector. But in the last weeks, significant bumps have appeared in what has almost universally been considered one of the few relatively unblocked roads to “certain” prosperity.
11 December 2009. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com.It was a great relief to the world that Obama replaced the no-bid-contracts gang of Bush and Cheney, bringing a more civilized face to leadership of the world's key economy. But being the not-Bush is not enough. Instead of implementing the policy of Change that he promised us, he has taken a frighteningly casual business-as-usual approach, making himself increasingly irrelevant even as he accepts the Nobel Peace Prize.
8 December 2009. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com.On 4 key policy fronts, Obama is making the same mistake. From the Too Big to Fail Banks to the health "care" debate, and from the collapse of the housing market to the mystifying "double-down" on Afghanistan, Obama is relying on middlemen to carry out his policies. And while he begs them for help, they chortle into their Veuve Cliquot.
7 December 2009. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com. The economic collapse of the United States has its roots in a political failure in which politicians serve the interests of their sponsors on K Street and Wall Street, rather than the American people. This process was started by Reagan/ism, pushed to new heights by Bush and Cheney, and obediently continued by Obama. Unless real change is enacted, the US is rushing headlong into an economic and political Nietzschean abyss.
4 December 2009. India's economy is primarily driven by consumption, and yet with most of the population earning less than $2.50 a day, there is clearly massive potential for real growth - i.e. not debt-based and driven by necessities and small luxuries. Yet massive challenges remain. We review an economic report, things we agree with in part - boosting agricultural productivity, improving governance and infrastructure, more trade, less inflation and better education - but violently oppose in it's support of liberalizing the financial markets.
|
